September Polling Memorandum: Current NC Election Trends
MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Paul Shumaker
SUBJECT: Current NC Elections Trends
DATE: September 14, 2022
In response to countless media inquiries from state and national reporters about “how are things looking in NC,” I thought it would be good to share some of my most recent statewide polling data. The survey of 800 registered voters was conducted over two nights, August 21 – 22, 2022, by live phone interviews with 50% cell phones and 50% landlines. Any voter who said they did not vote or did not plan to vote was excluded from the survey.
The survey was conducted on behalf of my Supreme Court clients, so I cannot share all the crosstabs, but the image test of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, as well as the overall generic ballot test question, tells the whole. Also, for the benefit of the second most often asked question, I will share some insights into the impact of the overturning of Roe V. Wade.
The Red Wave is Real – The remaining question is whether it will hold until November. The Democrats had a blue wave in August 2018 and a real shot at winning the state legislature, but that opportunity was blown by their handling of Justice Kavanaugh’s confirmation. How Republicans handle the post-Roe v Wade world will make the difference between a good year and a great year.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden
The Democrats want the midterms to be about Donald Trump, while the Republicans want them to be about Joe Biden.
Joe Biden’s image with all voters was 40.6% favorable and 50.1% unfavorable for an overall net negative of 9.5. Only 5.9% of Republicans were favorable, 89.0% were unfavorable, and 5.1% expressed no opinion. Democrats were 72.7% favorable to 18.9% unfavorable, and 8.9% said no opinion. Unaffiliated voters were 40.9% favorable, 46.1% unfavorable, and 12.9% no opinion.
Donald Trump’s image with all voters was 38.3% favorable to 51.6% unfavorable for an overall net negative of 13.3. Republicans were 75.3% favorable, 15.3% unfavorable, and 9.4% expressed no opinion. Democrats were 8.9% favorable, 81.9% unfavorable, and 9.3% no opinion. Unaffiliated voters were 35.3% favorable, 56.5% unfavorable, and 8.2% no opinion.
But now, here’s the rub for the Democrats. If your level of interest in the November elections is a 10, on a scale of 1 to 10 (62.4 % of those interviewed said a 10, N=499), Biden is net negative 12 points (40.5 favorable/52.5 unfavorable) to Donald Trump who is net negative 5.6 (43.3 to 48.9).
Budd v Beasley
The Senate ballot test was Beasley 42.3%, Budd 41.4%, Bray 3.0%, and Hoh 1.4%, with 12.0% undecided. However, with the voters most interested in the November elections, the ballot was 44.3% Budd, 42.5% Beasley, 2.0% Bray, and 1.2% Hoh.
This race will be close, but this is North Carolina, and the trend line in the survey reflects the same trend line Thom Tillis faced in his first US Senate election.
A minor footnote for the US Senate ballot, undecided voters in that race preferred a conservative judge for the Supreme Court 45.8% to just 18.8% for a liberal one. The more ideological the US Senate becomes, the better the world improves for Ted Budd.
North Carolina Supreme Court Races
None of the candidates for the Supreme Court have an image awareness to win over voters. All candidate ballots are currently a reflection of the mood of the electorate. So, let’s first review the generic ballot test and the ideological ballot test for judges.
The generic ballot test was 44.3% Democratic to 43.5% Republican. However, with the “10” voters, the generic ballot test was 47.9% Republican to 40.5% Democratic. Furthermore, on the ideological ballot test of whether you are likely to vote for a conservative or a liberal for a Supreme Court Justice, 52.8% of voters said conservative compared to just 35.4% for a liberal. “10” voters 56.5% for a conservative to 32.5% for a liberal.
Candidate ballot test numbers were 40.6% Richard Dietz to 35.4% Inman and 40.3% Allen to 38.5% Ervin.
Consistent with the ideological trend lines were voters’ opinions about tough sentencing and applying the evidence and facts of a case as more important than extenuating circumstances of a criminal’s family life.
67.9 % of voters said they wanted a Supreme Court Justice who was tough on sentencing criminals to 8.5% who said go easy, with 23.6% undecided. 63.5% of voters said it is the factual evidence that matters when sentencing a person convicted of a crime to 24.6% said a criminal’s family life and personal background should be considered.
Roe V Wade and The Democrats’ Only Hope
I begin by telling my fellow Republicans, don’t shoot the messenger, which most are prone to do. These are the results of what voters told a total stranger on the phone. Secondly, Democrats will try to use the issue to fix their voter turnout problem and make inroads with some suburban GOP voters. If we help the Democrats fix their voter intensity problem as they helped fix ours in 2018, then supermajorities become simple majorities, and statewide races tighten up extensively.
Overall, when asked which statement best describes your opinion about the issue of abortion?
10.0% Abortions should not be legal in any circumstance
16.1% Abortions should only be legal if the mother's life is endangered.
25.1% Abortions should be permitted in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, or in the case of rape, incest, or to protect the mother's life.
44.4% Abortions should be the right of a woman and legal in all circumstances
Republicans
13.7% Abortions should not be legal in any circumstance
26.3% Abortions should only be legal if the mother's life is endangered.
35.3% Abortions should be permitted in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, or in the case of rape, incest, or to protect the mother's life.
20.8% Abortions should be the right of a woman and legal in all circumstances
Democrats
7.5% Abortions should not be legal in any circumstance
11.7% Abortions should only be legal if the mother's life is endangered.
14.2% Abortions should be permitted in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, or in the case of rape, incest, or to protect the mother's life.
61.9% Abortions should be the right of a woman and legal in all circumstances
Unaffiliated Voters
9.5% Abortions should not be legal in any circumstance
12.1% Abortions should only be legal if the mother's life is endangered.
26.3% Abortions should be permitted in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, or in the case of rape, incest, or to protect the mother's life.
47.8% Abortions should be the right of a woman and legal in all circumstances It is for those elected to compose the policy solutions.
There is a common ground for Republicans to build a winning coalition on this issue as it was under Roe v Wade. Radicalize the ultra-left Democrats who support unrestricted access to abortions, including full-term abortions, while not letting Democrats radicalize the Republicans as the Party of an all-out ban.