Memorandum: October 6, 2022 - The 2022 Red Wave
MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Paul Shumaker
SUBJECT: The 2022 Red Wave
DATE: October 6, 2022
2022 is all about the economy.
Democrats and most news media members want to make 2022 about two issues, Donald Trump and abortion rights. While most public surveys and numerous surveys conducted on behalf of clients show a tight US Senate race and Judicial ballots, the internal numbers show the makings of an excellent year for Republicans.
As I’ve stated in numerous media interviews and panel discussions, the economy steps on every path the Democrats hope to take. Without fixing the economy, their path to victory is dark and complex. The GOP path is much easier. It is about letting Democrats be Democrats and focus on economic solutions, much like the GOP majorities have done in the state legislature over the past 12 years.
Biden Verses Trump
Based upon a recent data analytics project with N=1,953 voter interviews, all with live callers, voters were asked: If the November general elections were held today, which of the following issues will have more impact on your decision for whom to vote for? Raising prices and the state of the economy or abortion rights? Overall, 52.0% said economy compared to 37.9% for Abortion rights.
Overall, Biden’s image was 41.1 % favorable to 51.6% unfavorable. Unfavorable Biden voters answered 74.6% economy to just 17.3% abortion rights,
Overall, Trump’s image was 40.3% favorable to 49.2% unfavorable. Unfavorable Trump voters answered 30% economy to 60% abortion rights.
Biden and Trump have the same image ratio, but concerns about the economy make playing the Trump card for Democrats less impactful.
Other important trend line factors that indicate a Red Wave in 2022.
While the US Senate race appears to be tied, 60.3% of undecided voters said the economy was driving the decision factor to just 23.8% who said Abortion rights. The state of the economy makes the path for Ted Budd much broader and easier to build a winning coalition.
The GOP has suffered in past elections from a wide gap with voters who hold a four-year college degree compared to voters without a degree. Voters with a college degree were split, 46.3% economy to 45.8% abortion rights. Voters without a degree, 55.2% economy to 35.3% abortion rights.
Overall the generic ballot on judicial races was a +1 GOP advantage, basically a tie, which is much about the math of current voter registration. However, undecided ballot voters were 56.3% economy to just 23.3% abortion rights.
The RDU Market
Democratic Judicial candidates appear to be focused heavily on the RDU media market. They hope to build their voter margins to offset losses in other areas of the state. It is the largest and most democratic media market in the state. Overall, among voters in the RDU market (N=587), 46.5% said the economy to 44.8% said Abortion rights. In Wake County alone (N=233), voters were 47.5% economy to 44.3% abortion rights.
The Path to the Red Wave
The state of Joe Biden’s economy has opened the door to a Red Wave. Ensuring victory for the US Senate, Supreme Court and Court of Appeals runs through the Triangle DMA.
The door is open for Republican candidates to close the ballot gap in the Triangle. Doing so at the top will carry down-ballot leading to more success at the state legislative and local levels.
Democrats know the economy is the issue, they just won’t say it. However, CNN said it well with an October 4, 2022 headline, “White House launches last ditch effort to dissuade OPEC from cutting oil production to avoid a ‘total disaster.’ 1
1 https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/04/politics/white-house-lobby-opec-oil-production-cuts- gasoline-prices-midterms/index.html